Bitcoin exchange-traded funds (ETFs) in the United States have achieved a significant milestone, surpassing $20 billion in total net inflows as of October 17. This achievement marks a record high for Bitcoin ETFs, which hit this target in just 10 months. Despite this positive trend in ETF inflows, Bitcoin’s price has continued its seven-month downtrend since March, struggling to break above $68,300 since June.
Eric Balchunas, a senior ETF analyst at Bloomberg, emphasized the importance of this achievement, noting that growing ETF net flows is one of the toughest metrics to improve. He highlighted that while Bitcoin ETFs reached the $20 billion mark quickly, it took gold ETFs approximately five years to achieve the same milestone, indicating strong investor interest in Bitcoin.
The recent surge in net inflows began on October 11, when Bitcoin ETFs recorded more than $253 million in inflows after experiencing three consecutive days of net outflows. This marked the beginning of a four-day streak, culminating in $458 million worth of BTC being added to US ETFs by October 16, per Farside Investors data. As a result, Bitcoin ETFs now hold over $65.4 billion in cumulative on-chain Bitcoin, accounting for about 4.9% of the circulating supply.
Despite the steady inflows, Bitcoin’s price remains stagnant. Analysts suggest that the price could see a potential boost if a historic pattern repeats. Historically, Bitcoin tends to rally in the last quarter of the year, especially during halving years like 2024. In previous halving years, Bitcoin prices have risen significantly in October, November, and December. For instance, during the last halving year in 2020, the price surged by over 27% in October and over 42% in November.
Some market experts are optimistic about a similar trend this year. They predict that Bitcoin could experience a three-month rally starting in October, potentially reaching up to $92,000 by the end of the year, based on historical patterns and average monthly returns. October has traditionally seen an average return of 21.47%, while November is often the best month for Bitcoin, with average gains of 46.8%.
In summary, while Bitcoin ETFs have successfully drawn significant investments, Bitcoin’s price remains in a prolonged downtrend. However, with historical patterns suggesting a possible rally in the coming months, investors remain hopeful for a positive turn in the market.
